Wood Mackenzie has downgraded its outlook for global cumulative installed wind power capacity at the end of 2032 by 29 GW to 2.35 TW, representing a reduction of less than 2% compared to the projection a quarter ago.
The downward revision in the firm’s fourth-quarter global wind outlook update is due to challenges in project execution in China and maturation of the US offshore sector, which is expected to reach roughly half the government’s 30 GW offshore wind target by 2030.
Growing pains in the US market have led to a 10.9-GW downgrade in the 2023-2032 outlook. According to Wood Mackenzie, Ørsted’s decision to cease development of its Ocean Winds 1 and 2 projects, supply chain bottlenecks and permitting delays will defer almost 8 GW of offshore wind projects beyond 2032. In addition, Luke Lewandowski, vice president of global Renewables Research at the company, said that “[c]ontinued economic and policy uncertainty, including pending guidance from the US Treasury, caused onshore and repowering development timelines to shift, prolonging the 2023 slowdown through 2024.”
In China, more stringent permitting requirements, coupled with the cancellation of several idle projects and slow project execution rates have caused a 12-GW downgrade, or a 1.5% decline quarter-over-quarter. Lewandowski said that the near-term outlook for China is expected to be sluggish but the country’s onshore wind outlook from 2026 to 2032 remains unchanged.
Lewandowski also expressed hopes that COP28 will help unlock some of the growth potential in the Middle East and other emerging markets across Asia and Africa.